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Mortgage Rates Reality Check | North Star Briefing (Nov 2025)

ISSUE # 2 –  November 2025

Editor’s Note

This month: Mortgage Rates Reality Check-Interest rates sneak into your mortgage, media spin muddies the facts, and Europe dusts off its war boots. Plus: Can housing still make you rich? Your turkey come with a Michelin star? And why gratitude might be your secret weapon.

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  • Rate Radar – Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Obey the Fed

  • Harbor Report – Why Residential Real Estate Still Wins

  • Stateside Signals – White House Renovations & Deportations 

  • Open Seas Outlook – Europe’s New Air: No-Fly Zones

  • Galley & Grit – How Not to Ruin the Turkey This Thanksgiving

  • Moral Compass – Gratitude, On Purpose

  • Beacon in the Storm – Dysfunction in the Government

Ready to move? Free coaching consult or capital options—your call.

858-229-7199 – jdevilliers@c2financial.com

 

Rate Radar

Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Obey the Fed (and How a “Tiny” Cut Actually Saves You)

Because the mortgage market is weirder than your uncle’s coin collection

There are two big myths about mortgage rates that refuse to die—like cockroaches in a rent-controlled apartment:

Myth #1: “When Jerome Powell sneezes, my mortgage catches a cold.”

Nope. Not even close.

Everyone thinks mortgage rates are tethered to the Fed like a baby goat on a leash. “Powell cut rates! Why isn’t my mortgage rate dropping like my will to live during tax season?” Here’s why:

30-year fixed mortgage rates are not set by the Fed. They’re set by a bunch of folks in fleece vests trading mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that price off the 10-year Treasury yield—not the Fed’s overnight rate.

So when the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates might… stay put. Or rise. Or go sulk in a corner. Why?

  • Volatility & prepayment panic. Rate cuts can spook investors into thinking everyone’s going to refinance. That adds risk. More risk = bigger spreads. Bigger spreads = higher mortgage rates.

  • Convexi-what-now? It’s called duration/convexity hedging, and it basically means that when rates drop, MBS get squirrelly, and investors start selling Treasuries to hedge their exposure. That pushes Treasury yields up—which drags mortgage rates along like a reluctant toddler.

So yes, the Fed might be cutting with scissors, but your mortgage rate is over here chasing butterflies. If you want to predict where mortgage rates go, watch the 10-year Treasury and MBS spreads, not Powell’s facial expressions.

Myth #2: “Just a little rate drop will save me a fortune!”

Not unless your idea of a fortune is an extra appetizer at Applebee’s.

Let’s do some math (don’t worry, there’s no quiz). Here’s what happens on a $500,000, 30-year fixed loan if the rate changes:

Rate Monthly P&I Change vs 6.50%
5.50% $2,838.95 −$321.39
6.00% $2,997.75 −$162.59
6.25% $3,078.59 −$81.75
6.50% $3,160.34 —
6.75% $3,242.99 +$82.65
7.00% $3,326.51 +$166.17
7.50% $3,496.07 +$335.73

Translation:

  • A 0.25% rate move ≈ $80/month (per $500K loan).

  • A 0.50% move ≈ $160/month.

  • A 1.00% move ≈ $320/month.

Is that real money? Absolutely. Is it the windfall people fantasize about while scrolling Zillow at midnight? Not really. You’ll save more fiddling with structure—points, buydowns, or a different loan type—than waiting around for a magical rate drop.

Think Like a Bond Trader (But Please Shower First)

Here’s how to actually make smart mortgage decisions without needing a PhD in financial sorcery:

  1. Track the 10-Year Treasury + MBS Spreads. Fed rate cuts? Meh. The real juice is when the 10-year falls and MBS spreads tighten. That’s when mortgage rates actually drop meaningfully.

  2. Run the Numbers, Not the Memes. Model your payment today. Stress test it (+1% or +2% in rate). If it still works, stop waiting for a headline that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. (Or worse—Twitter advice.)

  3. Use the Tools! Points, temporary buydowns, interest-only periods—these are your friends. Wishing and waiting is not a strategy. That’s what people do with socks that mysteriously vanish in the laundry.

  4. Refi = Optional, Not a Life Plan. If rates drop later, refi. If not, you’re still good. Don’t build your entire future on “maybe.” That’s how people end up with jet skis they can’t afford.

Bottom Line (No, Seriously, Here’s the Bottom):

Mortgage rates don’t answer to Jerome Powell. They march to the beat of the 10-year Treasury plus a very moody MBS spread. And while every basis point counts, it doesn’t move your monthly payment by hundreds. Tens of dollars per $100k is more like it.

So stop waiting for the perfect rate unicorn. Build a mortgage plan that can handle a little market weather, and go make your move.

Because opportunity waits for no one—especially not someone refreshing CNBC hoping for a sign from the rate gods.

Want help building that unshakeable plan? Or just want someone to confirm that yes, your mortgage rate is weird but not broken? I’m here. No fleece vest required.

Need clarity?
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Harbor Report

Why Residential Real Estate Still Wins (Yes, Even If You Bought at the Worst Time)

Let’s kick off with a quote that’s been passed around more times than a holiday fruitcake:
“Ninety percent of all millionaires become so through owning real estate.”
Was it Andrew Carnegie who said that? Maybe. Maybe not. But let’s not fact-check our way out of a good north star. Because when it comes to building wealth, few things beat owning a place other people pay you to live in.

What if You Bought at the Top?

Imagine this: It’s 2006. You just bought a house at what turned out to be the absolute Everest of the real estate market. Then, like a bad hangover, prices dropped 30% over the next six years. Brutal, right?

But here’s the twist: if you didn’t panic-sell, that 30% haircut eventually grew back. In fact, by 2024, national home prices had blown past those old highs. And while prices were playing rollercoaster, rents were doing something far less dramatic: marching steadily upward. Vacancy rates? Dropping. Supply tightened. Demand didn’t.

So yes, the brave (or stubborn) who held on ended up just fine. More than fine, actually—they won.

The Secret Sauce: Leverage (a.k.a. Borrowing Like a Genius)

Now let’s talk about the unsung hero of real estate: leverage. Most people treat it like a dull footnote. But in real estate, it’s the main event.

Enter the DSCR loan—Debt-Service Coverage Ratio. Sounds like a sleep aid, but it’s actually a brilliant financing trick. Instead of qualifying based on your W-2 income, these loans are based on the property’s own cash flow (rent ÷ PITIA). It’s like your rental is getting the mortgage for you.

With 15–20% down, you can control a $500,000 asset using $75–100K of your own money. Try convincing a brokerage to lend you 80% on a 30-year note to buy stocks. They’ll laugh you right off the platform.

Here’s what that kind of leverage means over time:

  • Appreciation works overtime: A mere 3% annual bump on a $500K property = $15K. That’s a 15% return on your $100K down. And we haven’t even touched cash flow or principal paydown.

  • Fixed debt, rising rents: Inflation gets a bad rap, but for landlords with fixed loans, it’s your invisible employee. Rents rise. Your payment doesn’t. Margin = fatter.

  • Debt gets lighter: Each year, your loan stays the same while the dollar gets weaker. It’s like paying off your mortgage with Monopoly money.

  • Forced savings: Every mortgage payment chips away at principal. Unlike stocks, this builds equity whether or not the market’s in a good mood.

The “Don’t Be Dumb” Disclaimer

Now, let’s not romanticize leverage. It cuts both ways. Used poorly, it’s how people end up on late-night foreclosure infomercials.

So: do the math. Account for real taxes, insurance, maintenance, and management. Stress-test the deal—assume interest rates go up 1–2%, or rents take a temporary dip. If it still cash flows under pressure, you’ve got a margin of safety. Congratulations, you’re an adult investor.

The 2006 Case Study, Revisited

Even if you bought at the peak, you could’ve come out ahead—if you:

  • Bought cash flow, not a flip fantasy.

  • Kept tenants happy and units occupied.

  • Let rents rise with the tide.

  • Let time do its slow, boring compounding thing.

What would you have today? Higher rents. Recovered (and then some) property value. A fixed loan that’s now cheap in real dollars. And equity built from both appreciation and mortgage paydown.

It’s not flashy. But wealth creation rarely is.

So… Where Does DSCR Fit Now?

DSCR isn’t a cheat code. It’s a filter. It forces you to focus on the one thing that matters most: income. If a deal works at today’s interest rate and survives a little financial turbulence, then what you’ve got is an asset with upward-adjusting revenue and fixed costs.

Rates improve? Refinance. Rates don’t? You’re still collecting rent.

Bottom Line

Residential real estate remains one of the few places where ordinary people can buy a long-term asset with cheap, predictable leverage—backed by a product everyone needs: shelter.

  • Prices recover.

  • Rents reset.

  • Time rewards patience.

Buy for income. Stress-test the numbers. Then let tenants, time, and amortization quietly build your wealth while you do more glamorous things—like arguing about interest rates online.

Ready to move? Walk out of our first consultation with a 3-step plan that makes financing optional, realistic—and powerful when used.

With access to C2 Financials’ 100+ lenders and decades of personal experience in building, turning around and managing companies, raising capital, and running M&A I can help provide solutions to maximize your operations and secure optimal funding.

858-229-7199 – jdevilliers@c2financial.com

Stateside Signals

White House Renovations, Deportation Derangement, and Other Media Mirage Magic

“News is what somebody, somewhere, wants suppressed; all the rest is advertising.”
— Lord Northcliffe (Alfred Harmsworth), who clearly time-traveled to 2025, glanced at CNN, and promptly fainted.

Though he said it in the early 1900s, Lord Northcliffe might as well be the keynote speaker at today’s media circus. Nowhere is this more obvious than in how the press treats U.S. presidents — particularly one orange-hued former reality TV host who lives rent-free in America’s collective amygdala: Donald J. Trump.

To say the press despises him is like saying cats “tolerate” water. With the intensity of a Shakespearean blood feud, every decision made under Trump gets dissected, demonized, and declared a harbinger of doom — even when it’s something as exciting as… new carpet.

Case #1: White House Renovationgate™

Historically, presidents have tinkered with the White House like bored millionaires on a Home Depot spree. Let’s review:

  • George W. Bush (2006–07): Ripped out the Situation Room and replaced it with something out of 24.
  • Barack Obama (2010–14): Spent $376 million upgrading the infrastructure, possibly including a secret Batcave and a regulation basketball court.
  • Donald Trump (2017): Replaced some carpets and slapped on fresh paint. Total cost: $1.75 million. Cue the media’s spontaneous combustion.
  • Joe Biden (2023): $50 million to upgrade the Situation Room. Mahogany everywhere. Somewhere, Ron Burgundy smiled.
  • Donald Trump Again (2025): Demolished the East Wing to build a ballroom. Chaos ensued. Headlines ranged from “Democracy Dies in Demolition” to “Dictator Declares Dance Floor.”

Note: When Obama added luxury; it was progress. When Trump adds drapes; it’s fascism. Welcome to Advertising 101.

Case #2: Deportations and Selective Memory Syndrome

Let’s now visit the enchanted realm of immigration policy, where numbers are real but reporting is optional.

Deportation Totals (Formal Removals Only):

President Total Removals
George H. W. Bush 141,326
Bill Clinton 863,958
George W. Bush 2,021,965
Barack Obama 2,749,706 ← Winner!
Donald Trump (1st Term) 935,346
Joe Biden 545,252
Trump (2nd Term, partial) 400,000

If deportation were an Olympic sport, Obama would’ve taken gold while Trump tripped over his shoelaces. But did you hear about this on the news? Of course not. That would’ve ruined the whole “Trump = Cruel Tyrant Who Eats Kittens” narrative.

Case #3: Who Let the Illegals In?

Let’s talk encounters — the bureaucratic term for when U.S. agents go “Excuse me, sir, do you have any fruit or terrorist connections to declare?” at the border.

Border “Encounters” by President (Rounded Trends):

  • Clinton (’90s): 1M+ per year. A golden age of sneaky crossings.
  • George W. Bush: Declining as the economy tanked. Border agents got lonely.
  • Obama: Down to 300k–500k/year. Must’ve installed invisible fences.
  • Trump (1st Term): Spiked in 2019 (~860k), then dropped. Blamed for both.
  • Biden: Record highs.
    • 2021: 1.66M
    • 2022: 2.38M
    • 2023: 2.47M ← And the crowd goes wild!
    • 2024: 1.53M (People got tired of walking?)
  • Trump (2nd Term, FY2025): ~240k and falling. Fewer crossings, but also fewer headlines. Apparently, low numbers don’t make good clickbait.

Conclusion: All the News That’s Fit to Omit

Imagine if the press actually reported news instead of dressing ideology in the drag of journalism. If they pointed out that deportations were highest under Obama. That Biden oversaw the largest number of illegal border encounters in history. That Trump’s East Wing renovation wasn’t exactly Versailles 2.0.

But truth doesn’t drive ratings. Outrage does. And until that changes, journalism will remain a performance art — and not the good kind with berets and espresso.

So yes, Lord Northcliffe was right: the real news gets suppressed. The rest is just advertising — and bad advertising at that.

 

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Open Seas Outlook

Photo by Andrey Kremkov on Unsplash

Europe’s New Air: From No-Fly Zones to Flying Lawn Mowers

Europe has finally accepted a harsh new reality: air superiority no longer comes from swaggering fighter jets and Top Gun remakes—it comes from cheap flying toasters with GoPro cameras duct-taped to them.

Welcome to the era of drone warfare, where NATO now talks about building a “drone wall”—a phrase that sounds like something your uncle invented after watching too many sci-fi reruns. Brussels, in its classic “measured haste,” is funding flagship counter-drone projects and shoring up its eastern flank with sensors, jammers, and enough mesh networks to make a cyberpunk novelist weep.

Translation: fewer parades, more PowerPoints.

The skies over Donetsk made it clear: if you can’t crunch the numbers fast enough, you’re toast. The bureaucrats in Brussels are moving, but critics say they’re doing it with the speed and urgency of a garden snail at a union-mandated coffee break. The threat, unfortunately, doesn’t share their love of procedure. It arrives via quadcopter, costs $500, and sometimes drops grenades with all the grace of a piñata at a demolition derby.

The Red Sea Toll: Pirates, Premiums, and Pure Panic

Remember when the biggest shipping delay was someone mislabeling a crate in Rotterdam? Yeah, now it’s missiles in the Bab el-Mandeb.

Thanks to the Houthi rebels sinking merchant ships like it’s a bad Pirates of the Caribbean sequel, shipping insurers have cranked up their rates like a Roman emperor taxing wine. Several cargo carriers have now opted to take the “scenic” route around Africa—because what’s an extra two weeks between your IKEA sofa and civilizational collapse?

This isn’t just a naval headache—it’s a supply chain migraine. Longer voyages mean pricier goods, jittery markets, and the creeping realization that global trade can be derailed by one group with missiles and a grudge.

You don’t need to understand Yemeni tribal politics (and congratulations if you do), just know that a single strike near that narrow choke point could mean your holiday decorations cost double this year.

The Baltic’s Invisible Front: Now Starring Anchors as Weapons

Somewhere in the icy depths of Northern Europe, there’s a very naughty anchor pretending to be a guided missile.

Europe’s seabed—a chaotic knot of cables, pipelines, and extremely important underwater doodads—keeps having mysterious accidents. Finland and Sweden are investigating cable sabotage, and one particularly shady tanker allegedly played jump rope with multiple undersea lines.

This is “gray zone warfare”—the kind where no one wears uniforms, everyone denies everything, and the damage gets quietly billed to your electric company.

Just one “oops” down there can disrupt power, paralyze stock markets, or reroute half the internet. It’s like playing Operation, except the buzzer is a global recession.

Germany Rearms (No, Really This Time)

For decades, Germany treated defense like a gym membership—it paid for it, but rarely showed up.

That’s over. Berlin has smashed through NATO’s 2% spending ceiling like a Bavarian tourist at an all-you-can-eat schnitzel buffet. By 2029, it aims to hit 3.5% of GDP, which translates to tens of billions in tanks, missiles, and orders that ripple across European defense firms like a jackpot on a slot machine.

The reason? Putin reminded everyone that “just-in-time” logistics don’t mix well with tanks rolling through your neighbor’s yard.

But here’s what matters:

Coffee-Worthy Questions (Forget the Chamomile):

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues testing all of this in real time—turning drones and electronic warfare into the ultimate DIY defense kit. The war has proven that brains, bandwidth, and a decent drone budget can sometimes outmaneuver sheer firepower.

Europe’s takeaway? You can’t spreadsheet your way out of an invasion—but you can try.

Want more breakdowns like this? Stick around. Next week we’ll be asking why a Greek island just bought more missiles than it has goats.

 

With access to C2 Financials’ 100+ lenders and   decades of personal experience in building, turning around and managing companies, raising capital, and running M&A I can help provide solutions to maximize your operations and secure optimal funding.

858-229-7199 – jdevilliers@c2financial.com

Galley and Grit

How Not to Ruin the Turkey This Thanksgiving

(Or: How to Cook It Like a Danish Genius and a French Wizard, Without Losing Your Mind)

Ah, Thanksgiving. That magical time of year when we gather with loved ones, pretend to enjoy green bean casserole, and place a poultry beast roughly the size of a small car into the oven, hoping for a miracle.

But here’s the cruel joke of poultry: white meat and dark meat don’t play nicely in the oven. One cooks faster than the other, like a hare and a tortoise, except both end up dry if you don’t know what you’re doing.

I learned this the hard way—until I had the good fortune of cooking with Claus Meyer, co-founder of the culinary church known as Noma (yes, that Noma). Over a Danish Christmas goose—delicious, feathered relative of our American turkey—he shared the cardinal rule: Cook your bird in parts. That’s right. Take it apart. Give it therapy. Then cook it separately, reuniting the pieces like a warm family reunion right before serving.

Roast Like a Pro (Not a Pyromaniac)

Here’s how you cook the pieces so no one weeps into their gravy:

  • White meat: Roast at 350°F for 16–20 minutes per pound, until the internal temp hits 165°F.
  • Dark meat (legs & thighs): Roast at 325°F for 13–20 minutes per pound, until it reaches 180°F.

Once both are done, assemble like IKEA furniture (but with more joy), and toss the whole thing in a 300°F oven for 40 minutes to warm and crisp the skin. Voilà! Perfection.

Want to Go Full Turkey Nerd? Enter Sous Vide.

If you’re the sort who owns a kitchen blowtorch and knows what a shallot reduction is, you’re ready for this.

  1. Disassemble the turkey like a forensic pathologist. Breast meat in one Ziploc, dark meat in another.
  2. Add liquids and herbs:
    • Breast: 1 cup sherry, plus bay leaf, rosemary, sage, and thyme.
    • Dark meat: 1 cup port and the same herbal suspects.
  3. Sous vide setup:
    • Breast: 55°C (131°F) for 18 hours
    • Dark meat: 65°C (149°F) for 24 hours

After their spa treatment, refrigerate the bags until the big day. Then, reduce the cooking juices by half in a skillet until you’re left with liquid gold. That’s your gravy base. You’re welcome.

For the Overachievers: The Brining Saga

If you’re truly committed (or just avoiding relatives), why not start days earlier by brining the bird? According to Thomas Keller—the man behind The French Laundry and the reason culinary school dropouts cry into their saucepans—brining is the secret handshake of truly great turkey.

“Make a schedule,” Chef Keller says. “Brine. Air dry. Temper the bird.”
(Which sounds more like poultry boot camp than a holiday meal, but it works.)

Keller’s Brine Recipe:

  • 1½ cups kosher salt
  • 5 lemons, halved
  • ½ cup honey
  • 1 bunch each: thyme and parsley
  • 2 bay leaves
  • 2 garlic heads, halved crosswise
  • 3 tbsp whole black peppercorns
  • 6 quarts ice water
  • 18–20 lb turkey, thawed

Instructions:

  1. Boil 4 quarts water with everything but the ice and turkey. Stir until salt dissolves.
  2. Add 6 quarts ice water. Let cool. (Unless you’re aiming for “Poached Thanksgiving.”)
  3. Submerge turkey in cooled brine. Refrigerate for 24 hours.
  4. Remove, pat dry, and let it air-dry uncovered in the fridge for another 24 hours.
  5. Roast. Shine. Accept compliments with fake modesty.

So whether you roast it, sous vide it, or brine it like a three-star general, the moral is this: Treat your turkey like royalty. It’s the centerpiece, not an afterthought. You’ve got one job—don’t mess it up.

Happy Thanksgiving. May your bird be juicy, your gravy rich, and your relatives moderately tolerable.

 

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Moral Compass

Photo by Giulia Bertelli on Unsplash

Gratitude, On Purpose

Martin Seligman didn’t invent happiness—he just dragged it into the lab, strapped it to a chair, and asked it politely (and repeatedly) to stop squirming. His pivot from learned helplessness to Positive Psychology gave us PERMA: Positive emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning, Accomplishment. Five fine pillars of flourishing. But here’s the kicker—gratitude is the quiet crankshaft that drives them all.

Gratitude brightens mood, sharpens focus on what’s working, strengthens human ties, adds depth to meaning (you don’t just get gifts—you notice the giver), and fuels effort without turning you into a burned-out husk. In other words, it’s not just nice—it’s necessary.

Seligman’s top tools aren’t high-tech. They’re the psychological equivalent of duct tape: simple, cheap, surprisingly effective.

  1. Three Good Things: Every night, write down three things that went well and why.

  2. The Gratitude Letter: Write to someone you never thanked properly. Bonus points if you read it to them—out loud, face to face, without fleeing the room.

These two micro-habits are clinically shown to reduce anxiety, buffer depression, and boost life satisfaction. Why? Because gratitude retrains your brain’s spotlight—from “everything is on fire” to “some things are working.” It shifts your inner monologue from “I’m doomed” to “I’ve had help.” It reminds you that you’re not a lone soul screaming into the void.

But here’s where things get inconvenient.

Humans are incurable goal-chasers. We orbit whatever we decide is ultimate: success, family, health, reputation, recognition. And when we finally catch the prize? It shapeshifts. The job wasn’t enough. The house needs a second story. The kids, for some reason, still don’t send thank-you cards.

Gratitude interrupts that cosmic hamster wheel. It doesn’t kill ambition; it just puts it on a leash.

But it also elbows us into a question Positive Psychology—by design—doesn’t answer for you:

What’s the point of all this?

Not the Monty Python answer (brilliant film, terrible strategy), but the real one. If life is a fluke—cosmic soup gone slightly sentient—then sure, pass the appetizers and enjoy the serotonin. Hug your people. Savor your coffee. Keep your gratitude list tidy to help your amygdala behave.

But—if you believe there’s a Creator, the equation changes. Gratitude isn’t spiritual flattery, as if God runs on Yelp reviews. It’s spiritual formation. A reshaping. A training ground for holding gifts without being owned by them.

That’s why Scripture’s relentless refrain—give thanks in all circumstances—isn’t cosmic customer service. It’s spiritual muscle-building. Seligman would say (and research backs it up): gratitude is good for you. Not in a smug, wellness-journal kind of way—but in a grit-and-grace, trench-deep way. It widens your lens, calms your nerves, weaves stronger ties, and keeps you standing when life throws knees to the ribs.

Your November Playbook:

  • Run a 7-day “Three Good Things” sprint—do it yourself or with your team. At the end, ask: What patterns emerged?

  • Write a Gratitude Letter—and if you can, read it aloud. Yes, it may feel awkward. Yes, it’s often unforgettable.

  • Ask the big one: What do you believe about a Creator? And what’s your “Ultimate”?

Gratitude won’t make life easier. But it will stretch your soul’s capacity—to work, to love, to suffer well, and to notice who stood by you.

Which brings us to the real question this Thanksgiving:

What are you grateful for—and what does that say about what you believe life is ultimately for?

 

From our friends at Dispair.com

 

 

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This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the personal opinions of the author as of the date of publication. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of any employer, client, or affiliated organization. The author is not selling, brokering, or offering any securities, investments, insurance, or other financial products through this publication.

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© 2025 Johann de Villiers. All rights reserved. Contact: jdevilliers@C2Financial.com .

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